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by Tom
Kee
The year was 1897. Horse-drawn carriages and trains were the transportation options of the day. The United States would soon be embroiled in the Spanish-American war.
Today, nearly a century after the idea was first contemplated, commercial automobile manufactures are finally starting to introduce vehicles that address both the needs of the consumer--mobility, convenience, and affordability--and the environment. Although developing an electric car is not a new concept, legislation requiring new vehicles to have a lesser impact on the environment is now a driving force behind the push for alternatives. The new crop boasts innovations in battery technology, new ideas in practical application, and exciting products being unveiled by automakers this year--which should appear on the showroom floors as early as this winter. Legislation for RecyclingAround the world, governments are taking a much more pro-active stance--often working closely with industry--to develop programs and implement legislation favorable to a sustainable future. In 1993, President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore announced a joint venture with American automakers aimed at increasing fuel efficiency by three-fold in less than 10 years' time. The partnership also envisioned a technology that could produce vehicles that were competitively priced and offered high performance while producing lower levels of pollutants and being safe to operate. The German government also adopted legislative measures which require manufacturers and retailers to collect and recycle packaging for a wide range of products. Since 1995, German firms have had to recycle 80 percent of the products. As a result, many product manufacturers are redesigning their products to be disassembled and recycled. Probably the most well-known example of this type of effort is in the automobile industry. In 1988, BMW introduced a limited production edition of a two-seat roadster which can be quickly disassembled. The car's plastic body panels are coded for easy recycling. In the U.S., 94% of all automobiles are collected for recycling, and 75% of the vehicle weight is recycled. As a result of the Clean Air Initiatives of California, New York, and Massachusetts, which mandates that 2% of new car sales be electric vehicles starting in 1998, some domestic car manufacturers, such as Ford and GM, as well as other foreign auto manufacturers like Toyota and Volkswagen will introduce recyclable cars in the near future. Alternative TechnologiesTo the public, the importance of fuel-economy technology rises and falls with gasoline prices. It is believed that rising gas prices will spur the demand for new mid-size autos that are more fuel efficient--reaching about 30 mpg by 2005 and 33 mpg in 2015. Experts agree that cars will attain these results--while becoming safer, roomier, more powerful, and less taxing on the environment. (See the Cover Story for more on this subject.) Both existing and emerging technologies offer the advancements needed to substantially improve fuel economy. By 2005, automakers hope to introduce mass-market vehicles to the consumer that can achieve 50 to 100 percent better fuel economy than today's vehicles. The requirements for successful commercialization of vehicles that use alternative technologies are:
Although significant strides have been made in creating a more efficient vehicle, there are three technologies contending to be the power source for the next generation vehicle.
The electric vehicle (EV) is currently the only type capable of satisfying the California zero-emission mandates. The future performance and costs of EVs are controversial--economies of scale have not yet been achieved. Some promising numbers have been posted giving cause for optimism for the EV market. Achieving speeds approaching 70 mph (110-120km/h) and ranges upwards of 85 miles (130-135km) can be attributed to significant advances in battery technology and more efficient vehicle designs. However, the major auto manufacturers claim that any EVs produced now and in the next few years will have limited range and much higher initial and operating costs than comparable gasoline vehicles. Hybrid-Electric Vehicles (HEVs)
Currently, HEVs offer no distinct advantage in fuel economy over conventional technology in the marketplace, but there is an intriguing feature of many of these hybrids. By using batteries for energy storage, HEVs can operate in battery-only mode for some distance. This would allow HEVs to enter and operate in areas restricted to EV operation (such as inner cities) or in an "emergency"--whether the car is simply out of gas or another oil supply crisis arises. Fuel Cell Vehicles Fuel cells are electrochemical devices that turn hydrogen directly into electricity without combustion, at high efficiency and with emissions of water only. For a fuel cell-powered vehicle, the hydrogen can either be carried onboard or produced from a hydrogen-rich fuel such as methanol. The problem with fuel cells is cost and size. Fuel cells cost thousands of dollars per kW and are too large to fit comfortably in a light-duty vehicle. Researchers hope to reduce their costs to less than $40/kW and shrink their size to fit into a car without reducing its cargo space. What's Real The GM Impact electric, now called the EV-1, is due in Saturn show rooms in California and Arizona this winter. The cars will be offered in four test markets: Phoenix, Tucson, Los Angeles and San Diego.
In Norway, PIVCO AS has developed an electric vehicle, called the CityBee. The CityBee has become a major focus of a BART demonstration in the Bay area. BART has contracted with Green Motorworks, Inc. of Southern California to lease 40 two-passenger vehicles. Carpool teams, individuals, or their employers will pay Green Motorworks $100 to $150 per month to use each vehicle.
The demonstration is expected to be fully operational this month. The first customer, Sybase, Inc. of Emeryville, California, has leased nine vehicles to be used by their employees. These and other demonstrations are being closely monitored by the National Station Car Association.
Future ChallengesAccording to the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), for the next few years advanced vehicles are likely to cost substantially more than their conventional counterparts, and the savings resulting from their lower fuel consumption will not offset their higher purchase prices. Although some analysts have claimed that operating and maintenance costs for advanced vehicles will be much lower than for conventional vehicles, evidence for such claims is weak. These conclusions obviously raise valid concerns about the marketablilty of advanced vehicles, especially given current consumer disinterest in fuel economy. Successful commercialization of the electric vehicle hinges on several important economic factors:
Although alternative vehicle manufacturers are springing up to cash in on new environmental legislation, the real story will be told on the showrooms of the major auto dealers. Will consumers accept alternative vehicles this time around? Stay tuned to Better World 'Zine...we'll be the first to let you know!
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